Lake Erie Nears 100% Ice Coverage After Record Cold Stretch

It has been 30 years since the last time Lake Erie was 100% frozen over in February 1996. This year, however, Cleveland’s Great Lake has come extremely close. 

As of Feb. 3, 2026, Lake Erie is 94% frozen over, a figure that far exceeds the average ice peak of 65-70%, according to the National Weather Service Cleveland. 

Over the past five years, peak ice coverage has swung dramatically, ranging from a high of 94% this winter to just 11% in 2023. Meteorologists attribute this to the prolonged stretch of extreme cold and this year’s record low temperatures. 

According to Alexa Maines, a meteorologist at NWS Cleveland, January held one of the longest cold stretches ever recorded, with eight consecutive days below 20 degrees Fahrenheit from Jan. 24-31. Only two years — 1899 and 1961 — have experienced longer streaks, each lasting nine days. 

“This is certainly an abnormally long stretch of really cold weather, so that's what caused the lake to freeze over more than a lot of recent years,” says Maines.

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The extensive ice coverage reduces the amount of lake effect snow hitting Northeast Ohio, but small snow showers still occur, from moisture released through cracks in the ice.   

“The ice-covered lake definitely helps shut down the lake effect snow, or at least diminish the intensity of it,” says Maines. “Although, since the lake is not completely ice-covered, the lake effect will take advantage of any cracks in the lake, so we'll often see lake effect snow showers off of those cracks.”

In addition, moisture from the upstream Great Lakes, such as Lake Huron, Lake Superior and Lake Michigan, can still contribute to lake effect snow in Northeast Ohio, she says. 

“We'll still get some moisture from those lakes, although that moisture has to travel a little bit farther, and we aren't seeing as intense lake effect snow,” says Maines. “So that's one of the reasons why we've seen a lot of really light snow, but nothing super heavy over the last few days.”

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Looking ahead, February temperatures are expected to trend warmer, which is above the average for this time of year. Generally, the seasonal temperatures are in the mid-30s. 

“So if we do end up being above normal, that means the temperatures could be above freezing at any point throughout that kind of mid month period,” Maines says. “So in that case, there will likely be slower ice growth and likely some melting.”

As strong offshore winds pick up and temperatures rise above freezing, cracks on the ice are likely to expand. NWS Cleveland urges Clevelanders not to walk on the frozen lake, no matter how solid it may appear.

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